Today November 7, 2025, 10:29 PM
Today November 7, 2025, 10:29 PM
By MELISSA GOLDIN
With Thanksgiving less than three weeks away, the question of how much this yearâs turkey and trimmings will cost looms large, especially with grocery prices 2.7% higher than they were in 2024.
President Donald Trump has claimed over the past two days that costs for the Thanksgiving meal are down 25% this year, citing a prepackaged Thanksgiving meal basket from Walmart.
âI just saw that Walmart came out with a statement last night, theyâve done it for many years, that Thanksgiving this year will cost 25% less than Thanksgiving last year,â he said during a news conference on Friday with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor OrbĂĄn.
But Trumpâs numbers are off. Hereâs a closer look at the facts.
CLAIM: Walmart prices show that the cost of Thanksgiving dinner is 25% lower in 2025 than in 2024.
THE FACTS: This is misleading. While Walmartâs 2025 meal basket costs about 25% less than the one from 2024, thatâs because it offers fewer items and different products that make it more affordable.
âItâs not apples to apples, right?â said David Anderson, a livestock economist at Texas A&M University. âWhat this does highlight is individual retailersâ strategies for getting customers in the door.â
The 2025 basket costs less than $40 and feeds 10 people, about $4 a head, according to Walmart. In 2024, a basket for eight cost approximately $56, less than $7 per person. Thatâs about a 25% decrease, possibly more depending on price fluctuations. John Furner, president and CEO of Walmart U.S., touted the savings in a LinkedIn post last month.
But the baskets differ significantly. For example, this yearâs includes just 15 items compared to last yearâs 29. It is missing many dessert items, including a pecan pie, mini marshmallows and muffin mix, as well as savory items such as sweet potatoes, yellow onions and celery stalks.
The superstore retailer has also substituted some products. Instead of 12 sweet Hawaiian rolls, the 2025 deal includes 12 dinner rolls. Both are from Walmartâs store brand. It also offers Kinderâs crispy fried onions as opposed to Frenchâs.
Plus, the amount of each item varies. Customers were promised a 10-16 pound turkey in 2024, but a 13.5 pound one this year. And theyâll get one can of cream of mushroom soup instead of two.
âTheyâre marketing it that âhey, this is a more affordable way,â yet that implies that âman, stuffâs a lot more expensive,ââ Anderson said. âI guess itâs good marketing.â
A Thursday press release from the White House also cited cheaper Thanksgiving deals at Lidlâs, Aldiâs, Target and Schnucks.
Targetâs four-person meal costs less than $20, about the same as in 2024, but substitutes green beans and cream of mushroom soup for French bread and frozen corn â also not an apples-to-apples comparison.
Schnucks provided The Associated Press with a press release saying the retailer is offering consumers its lowest price on a frozen store-brand turkey in over 15 years. It declined further comment. The other four retailers did not respond to a request for comment.
According to a recent report from Wells Fargo, the cost of a 10-person Thanksgiving meal has fallen 2% to 3% since 2024, depending in part on whether customers go for national name brands or cheaper store labels. The White House press release also cited this report.
Some economists have concerns about the price of turkey. Purdue Universityâs College of Agriculture reported at the end of October that wholesale prices are up 75% since October 2024, while retail prices are 25% higher than a year ago.
An earlier analysis from the American Farm Bureau Federation found that wholesale turkey prices were up about 40%.
And yet, that doesnât mean every bird will be pricier in 2025. Anderson explained that because certain retailers, such as Walmart, contract their turkeys well in advance, the price for customers might be much lower than the market currently indicates.
âThat gives them the flexibility to run those types of specials,â he said.
